Marquette Law School Poll finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% among likely voters in final survey before Nov. 3 election

The results for all registered voters include everyone in the survey, regardless of likelihood of voting. If the electorate expands from those most likely to vote to include those less than certain to vote, the race tightens. Higher turnout than currently expected results in a closer race. This is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for governor, by likelihood of voting

Among registered voters

The survey was conducted Oct. 14-22, 2026, interviewing 818 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 points for each candidate’s percentage. For likely voters, the sample size is 668 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 points for each candidate’s percentage.

The margin of error for the difference between the two candidates is thus twice the margin of error for the individual percentages. The leads among both likely voters and registered voters here are within the margin of error for the difference.

In September, Crowley had a one-point advantage among registered voters, 46% to 45%. In October his support rose by one point and Tiffany’s declined by one point, resulting in a 3-point edge. Among likely voters in September, Crowley had 49% and Tiffany 46%, with Crowley gaining 2 points and Tiffany losing 2 points in October, for a net gain of 4 points, to a 7-point lead in October.

More detail about these shifts is seen by party identification. Among likely voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped from 95% in September to 92% in October, while Democratic support for Crowley rose from 96% to 98%. There are very few undecided voters among partisans.

Among independents, Crowley support increased from 44% in September to 56% in October, while Tiffany support grew from 18% to 26%. Those independents who were undecided declined from 38% in September to 18% in October, still leaving almost one-in-five independents yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped 3 points as Democratic support for Crowley was unchanged. Tiffany gained 6 points with independents and Crowley gained 4 points, but a large percentage of independents remain undecided among registered voters. These results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Vote for governor, by party identification

Among likely voters and registered voters

Among likely voters, the legislative vote closely mirrors the vote for governor, with 51% saying they will vote for the Democratic legislative candidate and 44% for the Republican. Among registered voters, 47% support the Democrat and 45% favor the Republican, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Vote for the state legislature, by party identification

Among likely voters and registered voters

Majorities of both Republican and Democratic voters say they prefer to have the governor and legislature of the same party, rather than have divided government. Among all registered voters, 60% prefer unified control and 38% favor divided government. Among Republicans, 59% prefer unified control, as do 65% of Democrats. Independents are evenly divided on this question, with 49% in favor of one-party control and 49% in favor of divided control. This is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Same-party or divided state government, by party identification

Among registered voters

Turnout and enthusiasm

Democrats retain an advantage in likelihood of voting, with 84% saying they are certain to vote or have already done so, while 77% of Republicans say the same. That is a 1-point decrease since September for each party. Sixty-four percent of independents are certain they will vote, a 3-point increase. The results are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm for voting also favors the Democrats by 8 percentage points in October, the same as in September. Independents are considerably less enthusiastic about voting than are partisans, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Enthusiasm about voting, by party identification

Among registered voters

Divisions within parties

Among Republican likely voters, 82% approve of the way President Donald Trump is doing his job as president, while 17% disapprove. Among Republican registered voters, 75% approve and 23% disapprove. Those Republicans who approve of Trump’s job performance are virtually unanimous in support of Tiffany. Among those who disapprove of Trump, Tiffany’s support slips, Crowley’s support rises, and the share who are undecided is notably higher in October than in September. Too few independents or Democrats approve of Trump to allow a similar comparison among those groups.

In October among likely voters, Tiffany wins 59% of Republicans who disapprove of Trump, Crowley receives 25%, and 16% are undecided. Among registered Republicans who disapprove, Tiffany gets 61%, Crowley 17%, and 22% are undecided. While this relatively large number of undecideds is a potential source for some future gains for Tiffany, in September Tiffany did better among Trump-disapprovers and there were fewer who were undecided, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Vote for governor, by Trump approval among Republicans

Among Republicans

Among Republican likely voters, 80% have a favorable view of the MAGA movement; among Democratic likely voters, 64% are favorable to democratic socialists. As with Trump approval, Republicans unfavorable to MAGA are less supportive of Tiffany than are pro-MAGA Republicans, 99% of whom support Tiffany. Among Democrats, favorability to democratic socialists is only modestly related to vote for Crowley, with more than 90% of both groups of Democrats (both favorable and unfavorable to democratic socialists) backing him. These results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Vote for governor, by party identification and MAGA/Dem Socialist

Among likely voters

Views of candidates

Crowley’s favorability improved from 31% in September to 37% in October, while his unfavorable rating remained unchanged at 44%, yielding a net favorability of -7. That has improved from -13 points in September. Tiffany’s favorable rating rose 1 point and unfavorable rose 5 points, giving a net favorability of -10 points.

The candidates for attorney general remain far less well known than the gubernatorial candidates. Incumbent Democrat Josh Kaul is seen favorably by 23% and unfavorably by 20%, with 56% unable to say. For Republican Eric Toney, 13% are favorable and 13% unfavorable, with 72% lacking an opinion. All these ratings are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Favorability of gubernatorial and attorney general candidates

Among registered voters

From September to October, Crowley’s favorable rating rose among Democrats, while his unfavorables rose among Republicans. Among independents, his favorable rating rose from 18% to 31%, while his unfavorables remained at 39%. Those lacking an opinion decreased among each group, declining most among independents, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Crowley favorability, by party

Among registered voters

For Tiffany, Republicans remained 79% favorable, while the unfavorable percentage rose by 5 points and those without an opinion declined by 5 points. Democrats became slightly more unfavorable, up 4 points to 90%, with a decrease of 4 points in those who haven’t heard enough. Among independents, Tiffany’s favorable rating rose 2 points and unfavorable increased 7 points, with a 6-point decrease in those lacking an opinion, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Tiffany favorability, by party

Among registered voters

Among registered voters, 36% say they mostly agree with Crowley’s positions and proposals, while 39% mostly disagree and 25% say they haven’t heard enough to say. That is a slight rise in agreement from September, with no change in disagreement.

For Tiffany, 39% mostly agree and 44% mostly disagree, with 16% unable to say. In September, 40% mostly agreed and 41% mostly disagreed.

Large majorities of Republicans agree with Tiffany and disagree with Crowley and vice versa among Democrats. Among independents, 31% mostly agree with Crowley and 22% mostly disagree, while with Tiffany 25% mostly agree and 44% mostly disagree. The results are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Agreement with candidates, by party identification

Among registered voters

Tiffany is seen as supporting Trump in Congress almost always by 49%, with 38% saying he supported Trump most of the time. Thirty-two percent of Republicans say Tiffany has almost always supported Trump, compared to 49% among independents and 66% among Democrats.

Among Republicans who say Tiffany has almost always supported Trump, 82% say they are voting for Tiffany and 10% say they are voting for Crowley. Among Republicans saying Tiffany supported Trump most of the time, 94% are voting for Tiffany and 2% for Crowley.

Perceptions of Tiffany’s support for Trump by party identification are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: How often Tiffany has supported Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Asked which candidate would do more on each of four issues, Crowley is seen as better on three and Tiffany as better on one. Crowley is seen as likely to do more on making healthcare more affordable and improving education, as well as doing a better job on data centers. Tiffany is seen as doing more to reduce taxes. These results are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Which candidate would do more on each issue

Among registered voters

Voters are evenly divided on Tiffany’s plan to return the entire state budget surplus to taxpayers, as opposed to using the surplus to pay for state and local services. Among Republicans, 76% favor returning the surplus, while 77% of Democrats favor using it for services, as do 58% of independents. This is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Return entire surplus or use for services, by party identification

Among registered voters; asked of half sample A

Crowley has proposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee a right to abortion in Wisconsin, and Tiffany has proposed a 10% income tax cut for couples earning $150,000 or less and no tax on tips or overtime. Each of these proposals wins majority support. Among all registered voters, 62% favor an abortion amendment and 83% favor the proposed tax cuts.

Voters divide along party lines on an abortion amendment, with 69% of Republicans opposed, 60% of independents in favor, and 97% of Democrats in favor. In contrast, there is strong bipartisan support for the tax cuts, with 86% of Republicans, 81% of independents, and 80% of Democrats in favor. These comparisons are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Abortion rights amendment and income tax cut, by party identification

Among registered voters; asked of half sample A

Voters’ self-described ideology has remained fairly stable from September to October, with views of the candidates shifting only slightly, though more voters are able to place the candidates in October. Crowley is said to be very liberal by 33%, 34% say he is liberal, and 19% say he is moderate, with just 2% saying he is any kind of conservative. For Tiffany, 41% say he is very conservative, 38% say he is conservative, and 8% call him moderate, with 3% placing him on the liberal side of the scale. These views are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Ideology of respondent and of candidates

Among registered voters

A substantial percentage describe both parties as too liberal or conservative, with 51% saying the Democratic Party is too liberal and 49% saying the Republican Party is too conservative. Thirty percent say the Democratic Party is about right, and 35% say the Republican Party is about right, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Are the state parties too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

Among registered voters

Voters remain about evenly divided between a desire for more services with higher taxes to pay for them (47%) and a preference for fewer services from government but lower taxes (52%). This question was last asked in 2018 and, before that, 2014. Throughout 2012, a similar small plurality favored fewer services and lower taxes until the final poll of 2012, when a small plurality began favoring more services with higher taxes, a trend that did not reverse during the single appearances in 2014 and 2018 surveys. This is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Higher taxes and more services, or lower taxes and fewer services

Among registered voters

National issues

Approval of Trump declined 1 point in October, to 37%, while disapproval rose 1 point to 61%. This is a new record low approval and record high disapproval for either the first or second Trump terms. The low for approval in the first term was 41%, and the high for disapproval was 54%.

In the second term, approval has steadily declined in each successive poll, except no change between one pair of polls, while disapproval has increased in every successive poll, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Trump job approval in second term

Among registered voters

From September to October, approval among Republicans slipped from 78% to 75%, with disapproval rising from 20% to 23%. Among independents, approval was unchanged at 14%, while disapproval decreased from 81% to 79%. Democratic disapproval also declined from 99% to 97%, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Trump approval, by party identification

Among registered voters

Trump remains extremely popular with his MAGA base, those favorable to the Make America Great Again movement. However, the size of that MAGA base among Republicans has declined in the second term from 88% in February 2025 to 73% in October 2026, with a slip from 77% in September. Those Republicans who remain favorable to MAGA give the president a 92% approval rating, but those not favorable to MAGA give Trump only a 27% approval and 72% disapproval, a shift of 10 points from approval in September to disapproval in October, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Trump approval, by party identification and MAGA favorability

Among registered voters

On Trump’s tariff policies, 67% oppose new tariffs on Canada, down from 70% in September. The effect of tariffs on Wisconsin farmers is seen as quite negative, with 70% of respondents saying they hurt farmers, 8% saying they help, and 21% saying they have no effect. The trends for these two questions are shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Views of tariffs

Among registered voters; in October asked of half sample B

Deportations and immigration enforcement present a mixed picture. Asked if immigrants illegally in the United States should be deported, 55% say they favor that policy and 45% are opposed. At the beginning of Trump’s second term, 61% favored such deportations.

When deportation opinion is surveyed by including in the question those who “have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record,” support declines to 43% and opposition rises to 57%. In February 2025, 50% favored and 50% opposed the policy with this wording.

Respondents are evenly divided on who they think is being deported, with 50% saying it is mostly those with criminal records and 49% saying it is mostly those with no criminal records. This division has been stable since February 2026.

Forty-one percent approve of the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been enforcing immigration laws, while 59% disapprove—a slight increase in disapproval since February 2026.

These results are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Deportation and immigration enforcement

Among registered voters; in October asked of half sample B

The Iran war remains unpopular, with 18% saying the United States has achieved its goals and 81% saying the goals have not been achieved. That is a slight increase from September in the percentage saying the U.S. has achieved its goals. At the same time, there has been a slight decrease since September in those that say the war has been worth the cost, with 22% saying the war has been worth the cost and 76% saying it has not been worth it. These results are shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Views of the Iran war

Among registered voters; in October asked of half sample B

Most important issues

Inflation and the cost of living remains the single most important issue for voters. The percentage listing that as the top issue rose from 45% in September to 48% in October. Immigration and border security remains in second place at 12%, followed by health insurance, and then jobs and the economy, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Most important issue

Among registered voters

Views of the economy and prices

Sixteen percent say they are better off than a year ago, while 42% say they are worse off and 42% say they are about the same. The net of better off minus worse off was at +3 in early February 2026, having improved since February 2025. That improving trend reversed in March 2026 and has generally declined since March, reaching -26 in October, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Better or worse off than a year ago

Among registered voters

Looking ahead over the next 12 months, 70% expect inflation to increase, 11% say it will decrease, and 18% expect it to stay about the same. That is a slight improvement from September, when 74% said they expected that inflation would increase, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Expected inflation over the next 12 months

Among registered voters

The public continues to think Trump’s policies will increase inflation, with 67% saying the policies will increase inflation, 19% saying they will decease inflation, and 12% saying his policies will have no effect. The net of increase minus decrease has doubled to 48 points from June 2025. The full trend is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Effect of Trump policies on inflation

Among registered voters

Perceptions of gasoline price increases held steady from September to October, with 92% saying prices are up over the last six months. In contrast, in early February, 50% said gas prices had declined over the previous six months, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Change in gasoline prices

Among registered voters

Perceptions of grocery prices have also remained little-changed from September to October. Since February, more people have said they have seen increased grocery prices, as shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Change in grocery prices

Among registered voters

State issues

There was a small increase from September to October in the percent who say holding down property tax increases is more important than increasing spending on public schools, with 59% now saying property taxes are more important and 40% saying school funding is more important, as shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Property taxes or school funding, by party identification

Among registered voters; asked of half sample A

Forty-six percent of registered voters say their local public schools are receiving too little funding from the state, while 14% say schools get more than is needed and 39% say they get enough funding to maintain a quality education. A majority of Republicans, 56%, say schools receive enough, while 73% of Democrats say they get too little, as do 45% of independents, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Adequacy of state funding for local schools, by party identification

Among registered voters; asked of half sample A

Gov. Tony Evers’ 400-year veto provided annual increases in per-pupil limits for schools. The public is evenly divided on this, with 46% saying it was necessary to support schools and 52% saying it means tax increases each year for centuries. Republicans overwhelmingly say it means long term tax increases, while Democrats are equally adamant that it was necessary to support schools. A slight majority of independents, 52%, say it was necessary funding for schools, while 42% say it means long-term tax increases. These results are shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Evers’ 400-year veto, by party identification

Among registered voters; asked of half sample A   

Declining enrollment in public schools, and shrinking school age populations, have led to the closing or consolidation of more than 600 schools over the last 20 years. School districts and the legislature have debated how to deal with this shrinking population. Among registered voters, 63% say closing and consolidating schools is the best solution, while 36% say higher taxes and more state support should keep local schools open. While rural areas are faced with substantial pressure on school populations, 72% of rural residents favor closure and consolidation, compared to 56% of suburban residents and 64% of urban residents. Closure and consolidation is favored by 84% of Republicans, along with 57% of independents and 43% of Democrats. These comparisons are shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Closing and consolidating schools

Among registered voters

Data centers

Attention to the issue of data centers remains unchanged since September, with 36% hearing a lot, 57% hearing a little, and 7% hearing nothing at all about the issue. In October, Republicans, independents, and Democrats were equally likely to have heard a lot, a shift from September when Democrats had heard more, as shown in Table 36.

Table 36: How much voters have read or heard about data center construction

Among registered voters

The percentage saying the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits has largely stabilized since February, with 75% saying costs are greater than benefits in October. This trend is shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Benefits vs. costs of data centers

Among registered voters

A majority of registered voters, 62%, say that Flock Safety’s network of surveillance cameras is an unacceptable violation of privacy rights, while 37% say they are an important tool for police investigations. A majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats oppose these cameras, as shown in Table 38.

Table 38: Flock Safety camera network: police tool or privacy violation

Among registered voters

Confidence in elections

There has been a slight increase in recent months of confidence in the 2020 election in Wisconsin, as 70% in October say they are very or somewhat confident, while 30% say they are not too or not at all confident. This trend since 2022 is shown in Table 39.

Table 39: Confidence in the 2020 vote count in Wisconsin

Among registered voters; in October asked of half sample A

Confidence in this November’s election is slightly higher, at 73%, with 27% having doubts about the upcoming election. Confidence has varied slightly during 2026, as shown in Table 40.

Table 40: Confidence in this November’s vote count

Among registered voters; in October asked of half sample A

Approval of governor, legislature, and Wisconsin Supreme Court

Approval of Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the state Supreme Court is shown in Table 41, along with recent trends. Evers’ approval stands at 50% in October, with 45% disapproving. The job the legislature is doing has 38% approval, with 53% disapproval, while 45% approve of the Wisconsin Supreme Court and 41% disapprove.

Table 41: Approval of Evers, the legislature, and the state Supreme Court

Among registered voters, 2025-2026

Favorability of political figures and groups

Favorability of state and national political figures in October and September is shown in Table 42. As in September, Evers has the highest net favorability rating and Trump has the lowest.

Table 42: Favorability of state and national political figures

Among registered voters

Favorability of the parties and political movements is shown in Table 43. The Democratic Party continues to have a more negative net favorability than the Republican Party, a pattern that has held throughout the year. The MAGA movement and democratic socialists are both seen quite negatively, though more people lack an opinion of democratic socialists.

Table 43: Favorability toward parties and movements

Among registered voters

College sports and Wisconsin teams

With the college football season in full swing, it is easy to assume that the audience for college sports is nearly universal. While there are many intense fans, 35% of registered voters say they don’t watch any college games across any sports, with another 21% who say they watch just one or two games. At the other extreme, 2% say they watch almost every game and 15% watch most games. A more casual 26% say they watch a few games.

A substantial 59% have heard nothing at all about the Protect College Sports Act, which passed the U.S. Senate recently, while 6% have heard a lot and 35% heard a little. This proposed law would regulate college athletics, including compensation to players, transfers by players to other colleges, and conference sizes, among other things.

Opinion of the importance of federal legislation to govern college sports is close to evenly divided, with 47% saying such laws are very or somewhat important and 52% saying they are not very or not at all important.

Among those with opinions, there is generally a negative view of how well the NCAA does its job governing college sports, but a large majority, 63%, say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. The work of the NCAA is approved by 10%, while 26% disapprove.

These results are shown in Table 44.

Table 44: College sports viewing and regulation

Among registered voters

With the Brewers in the World Series and both the NFL and NBA seasons underway, the Marquette Law School Poll asked about preferences of fans of Wisconsin’s professional teams and also other nearby professional teams. The Packers have the largest fan base, with 54% of Wisconsinites saying they are fans, another 22% saying they are casual supporters. Among the state’s registered voters, 17% pay no attention to the Packers and 7% say they root against the Packers.

The Brewers trail only slightly in fandom, with 49% saying they are fans and 28% saying they are casual supporters. A slightly higher 21% say they don’t pay attention and 1% say they root against the team with the most wins in Major League Baseball in each of the last two seasons.

The Milwaukee Bucks have a smaller fan base in this survey, with 25% saying that they are fans and 36% that they are casual supporters. A plurality of 38% say they do not pay attention to the Bucks, while 1% root against the Bucks.

Teams from adjacent states are more often the object of dislike and opposition, though sizeable percentages say they pay no attention to professional teams from Illinois and Minnesota teams. Among Wisconsinites:

• The Chicago Bears have the most fans at just 5% and casual supporters at 8%, while 54% root against them.
• The Minnesota Vikings match the Bears with 54% of Wisconsinites rooting against them.
• For the Chicago Cubs, who play in the same National League division as the Brewers, 3% are fans and 10% casual supporters, while 42% root against them and 45% don’t pay any attention.
• About two-thirds say they don’t pay attention to the Twins or the White Sox, American League teams who don’t draw as much dislike either, with about a quarter of Wisconsinites rooting against each.

These results are shown in Table 45.

Table 45: Fans of Wisconsin and neighboring professional teams

Among registered voters

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Oct. 14-22, 2026, interviewing 818 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. To cover more subjects, some items were asked of random half-samples of 410 and 408 registered voters, with margins of error of +/-6.1 and +/-6.1 percentage points.

Tables that show both October and September results compare this survey with the Marquette Law School Poll conducted Sept. 16-23, 2026, which interviewed 843 Wisconsin registered voters.

Half-sample A items:

• Reduce property taxes vs. increase school spending
• Return budget surplus to taxpayers vs. fund services
• Evers’ 400-year partial veto
• Whether local schools receive enough state funding
• Confidence in 2020 Wisconsin vote count accuracy
• Confidence in the accuracy of this November’s vote count
• Favor/oppose a state constitutional amendment guaranteeing a right to abortion
• Favor/oppose a 10% income tax cut and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime

Half-sample B items:

• Support/oppose raising tariffs on Canadian goods
• Favor/oppose deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally
• Favor/oppose deportation of long-resident immigrants with jobs and no criminal record
• Whether the U.S. is mostly deporting immigrants with criminal records
• Approval of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws
• Whether tariffs are helping or hurting Wisconsin farmers
• Effect of Trump policies on inflation
• US goals achieved / worth the cost in the Iran war

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 613 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 205 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 747 respondents and, for 71, by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 33% independent. When independents who lean to a party are counted as partisans, the sample is 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent. In all polls conducted in 2025 and 2026, the combined samples were 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent. Counting independents who lean to a party as partisans, the 2025-2026 samples were 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent. The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.