Marquette Law Poll finds that Wisconsin governor’s race remains tight; Crowley 49%, Tiffany 46% among likely voters

Also:

• Among all registered voters: Crowley 46%, Tiffany 45%
• Democrats have current turnout advantage
• Trump job approval declines to 38%, disapproval now 60%
• Public remains gloomy on economy, inflation, and gas and grocery prices
• Substantial opposition to data centers, some doubts about industrial development
• Mixed views of accuracy of election results

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin finds that, in the race for governor, Democrat David Crowley is supported by 49% of likely voters and Republican Tom Tiffany is supported by 46%, with 5% undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley is the choice of 46%, and Tiffany is supported by 45%, with 9% undecided. In August, Crowley had 49% and Tiffany 44% among likely voters, and the race was tied with 44% each among registered voters.

Partisans are strongly behind their nominees, with 95% of Republicans backing Tiffany and 96% of Democrats for Crowley among likely voters. Independents strongly favor Crowley, with 44% supporting him and 18% supporting Tiffany, but a large 38% are undecided. Results among registered voters are similar, with a few more voters undecided.

Compared to August, Republican support for Tiffany increased by 4 percentage points, while Democratic support for Crowley slipped by 2 points. Independent support for Crowley fell by 11 points. The percentage of independents voting for Tiffany rose by 2 points, while the percentage of independents who are undecided rose by 8 points. All these figures are among likely voters.

These results are shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for governor, by party identification

Among likely voters and registered voters

The survey was conducted Sept. 16-23, 2026, interviewing 843 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 692 with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

Among Republican likely voters, 83% have a favorable view of the Make America Great Again movement, MAGA, while 17% do not. Among Democrats, 66% are favorable to democratic socialists, with 34% not favorable. Among Republicans, those favorable to MAGA are almost unanimous in support of Tiffany, with 99% backing him, but among those not favorable to MAGA, Tiffany support slips to 73%, with 20% favoring Crowley and 7% undecided. Among Democrats, favorability to democratic socialists makes less of a difference. Crowley is the choice of 98% of Democrats favorable to socialist candidates, while 92% of those not favorable to socialists support him. These results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Vote for governor, by party identification and MAGA/Dem Socialist

Among likely voters

Among likely voters, Crowley holds substantial leads in the city of Milwaukee and the Madison media market, while Tiffany leads in the Green Bay/Appleton market and the north and west of the state. In the Milwaukee media market outside the city, the race is close, with Tiffany at 50% and Crowley at 46%, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Vote for governor, by region

Among likely voters

In September, Democrats increased their turnout advantage over registered voters, with 85% saying they are certain to vote, compared to 78% of Republicans. In August, 84% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans said they were certain to vote. This turnout advantage contributes to the stronger Democratic support among likely voters. Turnout among independents is substantially lower, with 61% in September and 59% in August saying they are certain to vote in November, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Likelihood of voting, by party identification

Among registered voters

Views of candidates

In this poll, 31% have a favorable view of Crowley, and 44% have an unfavorable view, giving him a net favorability of -13 points, compared to +4 points in August, when 33% saw him favorably and 29% unfavorably. Those who hadn’t heard enough about him declined by 13 points, from 38% to 25%.

Tiffany is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 45%, giving him a net favorability of -6%. Those not having heard enough declined by 3 points. In August, 39% had a favorable opinion and 42% an unfavorable one.

In August, Crowley was substantially less well known than Tiffany, and he remains less known by 10 percentage points, 25% to Tiffany’s 15%.

The candidates for Attorney General remain far less well known than either candidate for governor. Attorney General Josh Kaul, the Democratic candidate, is seen favorably by 22% and unfavorably by 18%, with 59% who haven’t heard enough. Fond du Lac District Attorney Eric Toney, the Republican candidate, is viewed favorably by 11% and unfavorably by 12%, with 76% not having heard enough. Both have become only slightly better known since August.

These favorability results are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Favorability of gubernatorial and attorney general candidates

Among registered voters

Crowley’s unfavorable rating has grown the most among Republicans, rising from 50% to 75% unfavorable over the last month, while Republicans who hadn’t heard enough declined from 43% to 21%. Crowley’s unfavorables also rose among independents, from 25% to 39%, with a drop in favorable ratings from 26% to 18%. Independents who hadn’t heard enough declined modestly, from 48% to 42%. There was little change among Democrats where unfavorable ratings of Crowley rose 3 points to 10%, while favorable ratings rose a single point to 65%. Across each partisan group, more than one in five registered voters have not yet formed an opinion of Crowley, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Crowley favorability, by party

Among registered voters

In contrast, opinions of Tiffany have shifted more modestly, with the largest shift coming among independents, where the unfavorable rating rose from 41% to 50%. Tiffany’s favorable rating among independents declined by 2 points to 18%, while the number of independents without an opinion of Tiffany declined from 36% to 29%. Views among Democrats shifted only slightly, with unfavorable rating of Tiffany rising 3 points to 86% and favorable opinion up one point to 3%. Among Republicans, Tiffany’s unfavorable rating rose from 5% to 7%, and his favorable rating declined a single point to 79%. Across each partisan group, Tiffany remains better known than Crowley, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Tiffany favorability, by party

Among registered voters

On Sept. 12, Tiffany’s airplane made an emergency crash landing into Lake Wausau, with minor injuries to Tiffany and the pilot. Among all registered voters, 35% say they heard a lot about this, while 45% heard a little and 20% heard nothing at all. Republicans were only modestly more likely than Democrats to hear a lot about the crash, 39% to 34%, while 27% of independents heard a lot. This is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Awareness of Tom Tiffany’s emergency plane landing

Among registered voters

Those who heard a lot about the plane accident are more favorable to Tiffany than are all registered voters, with 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable and just 2% without an opinion of him. Those who heard just a little about the crash are more unfavorable, 49%, than favorable, 39%, while 12% lack an opinion. Those who heard nothing about the accident are especially unlikely to have any opinion of Tiffany, 45%, with 19% favorable and 36% unfavorable, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Tiffany favorability, by heard about plane crash

Among registered voters

In August, 26% were unable to say how liberal or conservative Crowley was, versus 15% who couldn’t say where Tiffany stood. In September, both candidates’ ideological positions are about equally well known, with 17% reporting themselves unable to place Crowley and 15% unable to place Tiffany.

The perception of Crowley’s ideology has shifted in a liberal direction, with 30% now saying he is very liberal, up from 16% in August. The number saying he is moderate has declined from 23% to 17%, while the number saying he is liberal was barely changed from 32% to 33%.

More registered voters see Tiffany as very conservative, 40%, than Crowley as very liberal, 30%. An additional 38% say Tiffany is conservative, and 6% say he is moderate. There has been a 3-percentage-point increase in very conservative placement of Tiffany and a 1-point decrease in viewing him as conservative.

Registered voters see themselves as more toward the center than they see either of the candidates, with 32% saying they are moderate, 12% very conservative, and 11% very liberal. These results are shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Ideology of respondent and of candidates

Among registered voters

Asked whether they agree with Crowley’s positions, 32% say they mostly agree, while 39% say they mostly disagree and 28% say they don’t know enough. For Tiffany, 40% say they mostly agree with his proposals, 41% mostly disagree, and 19% haven’t heard enough. Republicans are more strongly aligned with Tiffany than are Democrats with Crowley. For Republicans, 81% mostly agree with Tiffany, while among Democrats, 68% mostly agree with Crowley. Here, too, more Democrats are unable to say if they agree with Crowley, 25%, than Republicans who can’t say that about Tiffany, 17%.

Independents are evenly divided on agreement with Crowley’s positions, 22% agreeing and 22% disagreeing, but 54% don’t know. In contrast, independents sharply disagree with Tiffany, 42%, with 17% who mostly agree with him and 39% who don’t know. This is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Agreement with candidates, by party identification

Among registered voters

In the contests for control of the legislative majority, 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic legislative candidate, while 45% will vote for the Republican and 7% are undecided. Among registered voters, 45% favor the Democrat and 44% favor the Republican. These results are barely changed from August, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Vote for the state legislature, by party identification

Among likely voters and registered voters

National issues

Approval of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job declined to 38% in September, while disapproval rose to 60%. Across both first and second terms, Trump’s previous lowest approval in the Marquette Law School Poll’s surveys of Wisconsin was 40%, and the previous high for disapproval was 59%. Approval has steadily declined through the second term, as shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Trump job approval in second term

Among registered voters

Trump’s approval among Republicans stands at 78%, a dip from 83% in August, with 20% disapproval. Independents are quite disapproving, 81%, with just 14% approving. Democrats almost universally disapprove, 99%, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Trump approval, by party identification, September and August

Among registered voters

There is a considerable difference in approval of Trump within the Republican Party. Among Republicans with a favorable view of MAGA, 90% approve of Trump’s handling of his job, while among Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA, only 37% approve and 62% disapprove. Among registered voters, 77% of Republicans are favorable to MAGA, while 23% are not. These results are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Trump approval, by party identification and MAGA favorability,
September and August

Among registered voters

During the Republican midterm convention in September, Trump promised $5,000 checks to every adult citizen if Republicans win the U.S. House and Senate majorities in November. Forty-five percent of voters say they heard a lot about this, while 40% heard a little and 15% heard nothing at all. Twenty-nine percent say they favor Trump’s promised checks, while 70% oppose them. As for the impact of these checks, which would cost the federal government an estimated $1.2 trillion, 19% say this would help the economy, 59% say it would hurt the economy, and 22% think it would make no difference. These results are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Trump’s promised $5,000 checks

Among registered voters

Republicans are almost evenly divided on the promised checks, with 53% in favor and 47% opposed. Among independents, 76% oppose the check plan, as do 94% of Democrats, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Favor or oppose the $5,000 checks, by party identification

Among registered voters, September 2026 (item new in September)

Seventy percent of registered voters are opposed to the recent increase in tariffs on goods from Canada, with 30% who support the tariffs. There is an even division on lifting tariffs on imported ground beef, with 49% support and 50% opposition. Only 12% think tariffs are helping Wisconsin farmers, with 65% saying tariffs hurt farmers and 22% saying they make no difference. All these results are shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Views of tariffs

Among registered voters

Most important issues

Inflation and the cost of living remains the most important issue for 45% of registered voters, up from 43% in August. Illegal immigration and border security is the next most important, at 11%, followed by health insurance (9%), jobs and the economy (9%), and property taxes (7%). Data centers and abortion policy are each most important to 5%, with affordability of housing, public schools, and crime each at 4% or less.

As the choice for next most important, inflation and cost of living again takes the top spot, closely followed by jobs and the economy, health insurance, the affordability of housing, and property taxes. The prominence of concerns related to economic circumstances as top issues has been consistent throughout 2026. These rankings are shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Most important issue

Among registered voters

Views of the economy and prices

In September, 16% say they are better off than a year ago, while 43% say they are worse off and 41% say they are about the same. The most positive response to this question during Trump’s second term came in February 2026, when 32% said better off and 30% said worse off. The full trend is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Better or worse off than a year ago

Among registered voters

A majority of registered voters, 65%, say Trump’s policies increase inflation, with 20% saying they decrease inflation and 14% saying they have no effect. The number of those saying the president’s policies increase inflation has risen from 55% in June 2025, while the number since then of those saying his policies decrease inflation has fallen from 31%, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Effect of Trump policies on inflation

Among registered voters

In February, prior to the start of the war with Iran, 50% said gasoline prices had gone down during the previous six months. In September, 92% say they have gone up, an increase from 81% in August, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Change in gasoline prices

Among registered voters

Voters also see grocery prices as rising. In September, 84% say grocery prices have been climbing, slightly more than 81% in August. In February, 68% said grocery prices were rising. Unlike gasoline prices, the public has consistently thought grocery prices have been rising, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Change in grocery prices

Among registered voters

The war with Iran remains very unpopular, with 15% saying the United States has achieved its goals in the war and 26% saying the war has been worth the cost. The trends for these opinions are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Views of the Iran war

Among registered voters

State issues

A small majority, 54%, say it is more important to reduce property taxes, while 45% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. Partisans are divided on this issue, with 80% of Republicans saying reduced property taxes are more important and 74% of Democrats say increased school funding is more important. Independents are almost evenly divided, with 52% saying property taxes are more important and 48% saying schools are more important, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Property taxes or school funding, by party identification

Among registered voters

The state has a substantial budget surplus going into the next year. Forty-eight percent say the entire surplus should be returned directly to taxpayers, while 52% say it should be used to pay for state or local services. Seventy-five percent of Republicans favor returning the surplus, while 83% of Democrats say it should be used to pay for services. Independents are close to evenly divided, with 47% in favor of payments to taxpayers and 53% saying the surplus should go to services, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Return entire surplus or use for services, by party identification

Among registered voters

Data centers and AI

Data centers have emerged as an issue in the last year, but only about a third of registered voters, 36%, say they’ve read or heard a lot about them. More than half, 56%, have heard a little, and just 7% have heard nothing at all. More Democrats, 42%, have heard a lot, compared to 34% of Republicans, while just 27% of independents have heard a lot. More than half of each partisan group say they have heard just a little, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: How much voters have read or heard about data center construction

Among registered voters

Despite the limited number of voters who have heard a lot about data centers and just 5% who say it is their most important issue, a large majority, 74%, say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits. Since October 2025, when 55% said costs are greater than benefits, opposition has grown to about 70% or more in 2026, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Benefits vs costs of data centers

Among registered voters

Opposition to data centers has grown sharply among independents and Democrats since last October, with 83% of independents and 90% of Democrats now saying the costs outweigh the benefits. Republican opposition increased through July, but has declined by 10 percentage points since then, to 57%, in September. These trends are shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Costs and benefits of data centers, by party identification

Among registered voters

A possible one-year moratorium on data center construction is favored by 68% and opposed by 32% in September, hardly changed from August. Partisan views also changed little, though independents increased their support for a moratorium by 8 percentage points, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Ban data center construction for a year, by party identification

Among registered voters

Asked to choose up to two benefits from data centers, 28% select maintaining U.S. leadership in AI, cloud computing, and streaming. This is followed by 25% selecting “digital economy relies on data centers” and by 23% saying the permanent jobs created are an important benefit. Twenty-one percent say construction jobs are a benefit, while 20% say tax revenue is important. Only 12% say developing a new industry in the state is an important benefit. These results are shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Most important benefits of data centers

Among registered voters; respondents could choose up to two

The most prominent cost of data centers is thought to be high water use, selected by 55%, followed by increasing the cost of electricity for the public, 49%. Concern about replacing agricultural land with industrial buildings is chosen by 35%. Other costs are less frequently chosen, with 13% saying the centers create few permanent jobs, 12% saying tax subsidies are not worth it, and 12% saying the noise from centers is an important cost. Table 32 shows these results.

Table 32: Most important costs of data centers

Among registered voters; respondents could choose up to two

There is considerable skepticism about artificial intelligence, AI, with 65% saying it will be a bad thing for society and 34% saying it will be a good thing. Majorities of each partisan group say it will be bad for society, though Republicans are close to evenly divided, with 53% saying a bad thing and 46% saying it will be a good thing. This is shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Is the development of artificial intelligence good or bad for society

Among registered voters

Manufacturing, development, and the economy

Respondents were asked which of five large industrial and commercial developments they would like in their area. Fifty-six percent picked at least one of the five developments, with 44% saying they would not like any of the five developments in their area. The most popular development, selected by 33%, is a semiconductor fabrication plant, followed by an e-commerce fulfillment center, chosen by 27%. An automobile manufacturing plant was chosen by 24%. At the bottom of the list was a steel or aluminum mill, at 14%, while a data center was the least preferred option at 9%. The full list is shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Large developments voters would like to see in their area

Among registered voters; respondents could select as many as they liked

Voters have generally positive views on the importance of manufacturing and commercial developments, traditionally a mainstay of the Wisconsin economy, but less so on the incentives communities use to draw businesses.

A large majority say manufacturing and commercial developments are important, with 49% saying very important and 43% somewhat important. Only 8% say not very or not at all important. The use of state tax exemptions and other financial incentives to attract business draws a more divided response, with 45% saying the economic benefits are worth the cost, compared to 54% who say these incentives reward companies that don’t pay their fair share in taxes.

When asked the bigger problem in the country, 61% say the economic system unfairly favors the wealthy, while 39% say it is a bigger problem that over-regulation of the free market limits growth and prosperity.

These responses are shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Economic development, incentives, and the economic system

Among registered voters, September 2026 (items new in September)

The Republican Party is seen as doing more to help business and manufacturing companies by 43% of registered voters, while 19% say the Democratic Party does more and 37% think neither party does much. A larger majority of Republicans, 73%, think their party does more for business. Among Democrats, a slight plurality, 43%, say their party does more for business, though 41% say neither party does much and 15% say the Republicans do more. A substantial 68% of independents say neither party does much for business, with 23% saying the Republican Party does more and 8% saying the Democratic Party does more. These perceptions are shown in Table 36.

Table 36: Which party helps business and manufacturing, by party identification

Among registered voters

There has been a recent rise in opposition to Flock Safety’s network of automobile surveillance cameras, which are widely used in Wisconsin and around the nation. Sixty-three percent say these are an unacceptable violation of privacy rights, while 37% say they are an important tool for police investigations. Republicans are closely divided, with 52% saying Flock cameras are an important police tool and 48% saying they are a violation of privacy. Independents are considerably more likely to say they are unacceptable, 71%, as are Democrats, 76%, as shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Flock Safety camera network: police tool or privacy violation

Among registered voters

Confidence in election administration

While a majority of voters are confident in how elections are conducted, substantial minorities have doubts. Two-thirds, 67%, say proof of citizenship should be required in order to register to vote. While 64% say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2020 election, 36% are not too or not at all confident, a percentage that has changed little since 2021. Confidence is only slightly higher in the upcoming November elections, with 68% very or somewhat confident and 32% not too or not at all confident.

Larger doubts are expressed over whether election officials sometimes submit false vote counts, with 55% saying this happens either never or hardly ever, but 45% saying it happens sometimes or often. Likewise, 48% think that non-citizens or non-Wisconsin residents sometimes or often vote illegally, while a bare majority, 51%, say this never or hardly ever happens.

Despite these concerns, 77% say they trust Wisconsin election officials to conduct fair and accurate elections, while 22% say they would trust the federal government more to run Wisconsin elections.

These results are shown in Table 38.

Table 38: Election administration and confidence

Among registered voters

Approval of governor, legislature, and Wisconsin Supreme Court

Approval of Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the state Supreme Court is shown in Table 39 along with recent trends.

Table 39: Approval of Evers, the legislature, and the Supreme Court

Among registered voters, 2025-2026

Favorability of political figures

Favorability toward state and national political figures is shown in Table 40.

Table 40: Favorability toward state and national political figures

Among registered voters

Prediction markets and poll tracking

There has been a sharp growth in prediction markets for political and other events. Some media outlets now report prediction-market trends as a part of their political coverage, in addition to traditional polling results. The public’s use of prediction markets, either for making trades or for following trends, remains limited, with only 7% saying they use these markets at all and 93% having never done so.

More established sites that track polling for political races have a slightly larger audience, with 16% saying they use such sites at least sometimes and 83% saying they never use them. This comparison is shown in Table 41.

Table 41: Use of online prediction markets and poll tracking sites

Among registered voters

The prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are seen quite negatively, with -28 and -26 favorability, respectively. Kalshi is seen unfavorably by 35% and favorable by 7%, while 58% have not heard enough to have an opinion. Polymarket is seen unfavorably by 32% and favorably by 6% favorable, while 62% have not heard enough.

Poll tracking sites by RealClear Politics and Nate Silver are substantially less well known, though with a close to even split of favorable and unfavorable views. Eighty-one percent haven’t heard enough about RealClear Politics to have an opinion, and 88% are unfamiliar with Silver’s Silver Bulletin site. Nine percent are favorable to RealClear Politics, with 10% unfavorable. For Silver’s site, 5% are favorable and 6% unfavorable. These results are shown in Table 42.

Table 42: Favorability toward prediction markets and poll tracking sites

Among registered voters

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Sept. 16-23, 2026, interviewing 843 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 692 with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. To cover more subjects, some items were asked of random half-samples of 421 and 422 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-6.2 percentage points.

Tables that show both September and August results compare this survey with the Marquette Law School Poll conducted Aug. 12-20, 2026, which interviewed 891 Wisconsin registered voters.

Half-sample A items:

• Satisfaction with local public schools
• Reduce property taxes vs. increase school spending
• Return budget surplus to taxpayers vs. fund services
• Favor/oppose proof-of-citizenship voter registration requirement
• Confidence in 2020 Wisconsin vote count accuracy
• Confidence in the accuracy of this November’s vote count
• How often election officials submit false vote counts
• How often non-citizens or non-residents vote illegally
• Trust state and local officials vs. the federal government to run elections

Half-sample B items:

• Support/oppose raising tariffs on Canadian goods
• Support/oppose removing tariffs on imported ground beef for 90 days
• Favor/oppose deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally
• Favor/oppose deportation of long-resident immigrants with jobs and no criminal record
• Whether the U.S. is mostly deporting immigrants with criminal records
• Whether tariffs are helping or hurting Wisconsin farmers
• Effect of Trump policies on inflation
• U.S. goals achieved / worth the cost in the Iran war

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 627 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 216 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 749 respondents and with 94 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 33% independent. When independents who lean to a party are counted as partisans, the sample is 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent. In all polls conducted in 2025 and 2026, the combined samples were 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent. Counting independents who lean to a party as partisans, the 2025-26 samples were 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.