Marquette Law School Poll finds almost half of Democratic primary voters undecided amid rapid shifts in the race for the gubernatorial nomination

Among Democratic primary voters, Hong is the choice of 26%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with 15%. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out of the race after polling was completed, has 11%, with 2% for Joel Brennan and 1% for State Sen. Kelda Roys. Forty-five percent are undecided. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the race prior to the poll being conducted, reentering the race after it was completed, and so is not included.

All voters were asked who their second choice would be. When Rodriguez’ supporters’ second choices are allocated to the other candidates, Hong stands at 27%, Barnes at 18%, Brennan at 5%, and Roys at 2%, with 48% undecided.

Among Rodriguez supporters, 29% pick Brennan as their second choice, 28% choose Barnes, 12% say Hong, and 4% go to Roys, while 26% say they haven’t decided.

While she was in the race, Rodriguez had the largest percentage of second choices, 25%, followed by Barnes at 20%, Hong at 9%, Brennan 6%, and Roys 4%. A substantial 35% said they were undecided on a second choice.

The exits of Crowley and then of Rodriguez, and the subsequent reentry of Crowley, leave a lot of uncertainty in a race to which many voters had been paying relatively little attention, as the large undecided rate shows. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll in March, 65% were undecided.

In the Republican primary, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany is supported by 67%, with Andy Manske at 2% and 30% undecided. The high undecided rate in the Republican primary is a further indication that the Aug. 11 primaries have not been at the center of attention for voters of either party.

Among Democratic primary voters who support a candidate, 64% say they are certain about their choice, while 36% say they might change their mind. Hong supporters are most firm in their support, with 72% saying they are certain to support her.

Among Democrats who have chosen a primary candidate, 67% say having a candidate who can win against the Republican in November is extremely important to them. Among Hong supporters, 69% say winning in November is extremely important, as do 65% of those supporting Barnes.

This survey was conducted July 8-16, 2026, interviewing 838 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 695, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. The sample size for Republican primary voters is 399, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The sample size for Democratic primary voters is 430, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points.

Sources of support

Support for candidates varies across ideological lines among Democratic primary voters. Of those who call themselves “very liberal,” 58% say they support Hong, as do 26% of those who identify as “liberal.” She has just 8% of support among those who say they are “moderate” or “conservative.” Democratic primary voters who are very liberal are also the least likely to say they are undecided at 24%, while 39% of liberal voters and 60% of moderate and conservative voters are undecided in the Democratic primary. The full results by ideology for Democratic primary voters are shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Democratic primary vote, by ideology

Among registered voters in the Democratic primary

Among these Democratic primary voters, 24% describe themselves as very liberal, 31% as liberal, 38% as moderate, and 7% as conservative or very conservative. Because of Wisconsin’s open primary, those saying they will vote in the Democratic primary includes 6% Republicans, 13% independents, and 81% Democrats.

Hong describes herself as a democratic socialist and is a member of the socialist caucus in the Wisconsin legislature. Self-described socialist candidates have recently won in primaries in New York and Colorado, as well as the New York mayor’s race in 2025. The emergence of Democratic socialists in Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and around the country raises the question of how voters view this political label.

To test this, the sample was divided into two random half-samples, with one sample asked to rate their opinion of “Democratic Socialists of America” (DSA), the organization most prominent in the socialist movement. The other half-sample was asked about the label some candidates apply to themselves as “Democratic socialist,” without mention of the organization. More people say they don’t have an opinion of the organization, DSA, than lack an opinion of the label “Democratic socialist.” The percent unfavorable is higher for the Democratic socialist label than for the DSA organization’s name, while the favorable percentages are the same. The two responses are combined in a single measure for the full sample, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Favorability to Democratic socialists

Among registered voters

Opinion of Democratic socialists varies by party and by political ideology among Democrats. Among Republicans, 1% have a favorable view (using the combined measure) with 84% unfavorable, and among independents 13% are favorable with 52% unfavorable. Fifteen percent of Republicans say they haven’t heard enough, as do 31% of independents. Among Democrats, 54% have a favorable opinion of Democratic socialists, 10% are unfavorable, and 36% haven’t heard enough.

Among Democrats, views of Democratic socialists vary sharply by political ideology. Among moderate or conservative Democrats, opinion is slightly net positive but with more than half saying they haven’t heard enough. Opinion is much more positive with liberals and overwhelmingly so among Democrats who describe themselves as very liberal, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Favorability to Democratic socialists, combined measure

Among Democratic registered voters

Among Democratic primary voters who are favorable to Democratic socialists, Hong wins 45% of the primary vote, and among those unfavorable to Democratic socialists she receives 8%, the same as among those who say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion of Democratic socialists.

Hong has notably more support from younger primary voters than from older ones, and older voters remain more undecided than the young, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Democratic primary vote, by age

Among registered voters in the Democratic primary

There is less variation in candidate support by education or by income, despite Hong’s campaign appeals to working-class voters. Hong does slightly better with college graduates than non-college graduates, though none of these differences are as large as the ideology or age differences. The percentage undecided is similar regardless of education. The results for education are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Democratic primary vote, by education

Among registered voters in the Democratic primary

Vote choice by income shows similarly small differences in candidate choice, with Hong doing a bit better with lower-income than with higher-income voters. This is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Democratic primary vote, by income

Among registered voters in the Democratic primary

The sample size of non-white voters is too small to report separately for Black, Hispanic, and other racial groups. Combining non-white voters shows modest differences in candidate choice, but a larger percentage undecided among non-white than among white voters, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Democratic primary vote, by race

Among registered voters in the Democratic primary

General election matchups

In general election matchups with Tiffany, among registered voters, Barnes is the only Democrat in the survey and still in the race with an edge over the Republican (4 points), while the others trail by 3 or 4 percentage points. All of these matchups are relatively close. Because Crowley had dropped out of the race when the poll was conducted, he was not included in the survey. Rodriguez holds a 1-point margin over Tiffany in the survey but has dropped out of the race. The results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: November general election matchups

Among registered voters

The matchups change when looking at likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain to vote in November. Here, Barnes leads Tiffany by 5 percentage points, and Hong ties with Tiffany, while Brennan trails by 1 point and Roys by 2 points. Rodriguez’ margin rises to 4 points.

This shift is due to more Democrats saying they are certain to vote than Republicans, a pattern that has appeared in each recent Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin. Among Democrats, 84% say they are certain to vote in November, compared to 79% among Republicans and 69% among independents. Whether this pattern will continue to hold through the fall is unknown. A vigorous campaign may boost the currently lagging Republican motivation to vote, or Democratic enthusiasm may decline. The matchups among likely voters are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: November general election matchups

Among likely voters

Comparing the general election performances of Barnes and Hong finds that, among registered voters, Democrats and independents are more supportive of Barnes than they are of Hong. Barnes leads Tiffany by 11 points with independents, while Hong trails Tiffany by 7 points with that group. Barnes wins 91% from Democrats while Hong holds 85% within the party. Democrats are also slightly more undecided in the race with Hong than in the race with Barnes. Tiffany’s support among Republicans is virtually identical against either Barnes or Hong, with slightly less party loyalty than for either Democrat. This comparison is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: November matchups, by party identification

Among registered voters

The same comparison among likely voters shows both Barnes and Hong doing slightly better within their party and Hong improving to a 6-point margin with independents. Tiffany also improves with Republican voters and does 1 point better with Republicans than Hong does with Democrats, though he remains behind Barnes’ level of party loyalty. This is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: November matchups, by party identification

Among likely voters

A majority of all partisan groups say it is more important for a governor to be willing to compromise to achieve some of their goals than to be uncompromising in their principles. Republicans are somewhat less supportive of compromise than are Democrats or independents. Among all registered voters, 72% say compromise is more important, while 28% say they prefer a governor who is uncompromising. The comparison by party identification is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: More important for governor to compromise, by party identification

Among registered voters

Vote in legislative elections

Asked generically about the November elections for the state legislature, 46% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate, 42% for the Republican candidate, and 12% say they haven’t decided. Among likely voters, 48% favor the Democrat, 44% prefer the Republican, and 8% haven’t decided. This “generic ballot” does not address party strength in individual districts but provides a general sense of the electorate. Among registered voters, Democrats hold a 10-point advantage in party loyalty over Republicans, 97% to 87%, while independents favor the Democrat 35% to 19%, with 46% undecided.

Favorability and name recognition

Name ID, involving the ability of respondents to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a candidate, is a measure of how well-known candidates are. In this poll, only Tiffany and Barnes have a name ID more than 50%, with 71% having an opinion of Tiffany and 60% of Barnes. Hong, who is leading the Democratic primary field, has a 44% name ID rate, while the other remaining Democratic candidates are rated by 21% or less among registered voters. Rodriguez has a name ID of 35%. This is another indicator showing that the public has not paid close attention to the candidates and that the campaign advertising has not helped many voters learn who the candidates are.

In terms of net favorability, all the current candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably, though by varying amounts. Rodriguez has a barely net positive rating. Tiffany at -1 net favorable has the best such rating among the active candidates, with Hong at -4 and Barnes at -8. The ratings of all candidates are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Name ID and favorability of candidates for governor

Among registered voters

Familiarity and favorability differ across party, with Republicans more familiar and favorable to their party’s candidates and vice versa for Democrats. Independents are less familiar with all candidates than are partisans, and they view them all net negatively, except for Rodriguez. Tiffany is the best known across all partisan groups, with a high positive net rating among Republicans, but the most negative net rating among independents and among Democrats. Among Democrats, Barnes and Hong have the highest net favorable ratings and are the two most familiar to Democrats. They are less familiar to independents, with Hong holding a net favorable rating of -4 points and Barnes -10 points. The full set of ratings is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Name ID and favorability of candidates for governor, by party identification

Among registered voters

Favorability ratings for the candidates for attorney general are shown in Table 15. Both Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul and Republican challenger Eric Toney have net positive favorability, but neither reaches 40% name identification.

Table 15: Name ID and favorability of candidates for attorney general

Among registered voters

Candidate and party ideology

Voters see the candidates for governor as representing a range of ideological views, though many say they haven’t heard enough to know the candidates’ liberal or conservative ideology. Tiffany is seen as the most conservative, with 29% rating him very conservative. Hong is seen as the most liberal, with 34% rating her very liberal. Only 6% say Tiffany is moderate, and only 4% see Hong as moderate. In contrast to these candidates, 13% of voters see themselves as very conservative and 12% say they are very liberal, while 33% view themselves as moderate.

The ideology ratings for each candidate, and the respondents’ ratings of themselves, are shown in Table 16. The respondents’ self-placement is shown first, with the candidates then in order of the increasing percentage rated very liberal.

Table 16: Ideology of respondent and of candidates

Among registered voters

Just over half of registered voters see each party as too ideologically extreme. Fifty-one percent say the Republican party in Wisconsin is too conservative, and 52% say the Democratic party in Wisconsin is too liberal. With respect to the Republican party, 30% of registered voters say the party’s ideology is about right, as do 26% for the Democratic party.

Moderates are less likely to see either party as about right than as too ideological. More than half of very conservative and conservative voters say the Republican party is about right for them, while liberals are evenly divided between seeing the Democrats as too moderate and as about right. More very liberal people say the Democrats are too moderate than say it is about right. The fit between the respondent’s ideology and their view of the parties is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Perception of party ideology, by respondent ideology

Among registered voters

Within each party, about half say their party’s ideology is about right. Thirty percent of Democrats say their party is too moderate, while 18% of Republicans say their party is too moderate. Relatively few Republicans, 14%, say their party is too conservative, similar to the 12% of Democrats who say their party is too liberal.

A majority of independents see each party as too ideologically extreme for them. This is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Perception of party ideology, by party identification

Among registered voters

Voters see shifting ideology in both parties, with 54% saying the Republican party in Wisconsin has become more conservative over the past 10 years and 54% saying the Democratic party in Wisconsin has become more liberal. A few people see each party as becoming more moderate, while very few see the Republicans becoming more liberal or Democrats more conservative. About a quarter say the parties haven’t changed.

The most conservative voters see less conservative movement in the Republican party, and the most liberal voters see less liberal movement in the Democratic party. Moderates see more change in the Republican party than in the Democratic party. These comparisons are shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Perception of change in party ideology, by respondent ideology

Among registered voters

Voters see far more ideological change in the other party than in their own party. Likewise, independents see more movement in both parties than do that party’s loyalists. These perceptions reinforce the perception of ideological polarization as each party sees the other as moving further, while they see their own party as moving less. The results are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Perception of change in party ideology, by party identification

Among registered voters

State issues

Inflation and the cost of living continues to top the list of most important issues, with 42% of Wisconsin voters giving that answer. The second most important issue is illegal immigration and border security, picked by 13%, followed by health insurance at 9%. These were also the top three issues in the March Marquette poll. Five of the top issues are related to the cost of living, a further indication of the pervasiveness of economic concerns, including property taxes, jobs and the economy, and the affordability of housing. At the bottom of the list are public schools, abortion policy, and crime.

Despite controversy over data centers in the state, only 5% name this as their most important issue.

Respondents were also asked for their second most important issue. Here, too, economic concerns predominate. Inflation and the cost of living is the most frequently mentioned second most important, followed by jobs and the economy, with health insurance and affordability of housing tied for third place among the second most important issues. Concern for immigration declines as a second choice to sixth place. The issues least frequently mentioned as the most important are also least frequently mentioned as the second most important.

The full list is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Most important issue

Among registered voters

While not chosen very often as the most important issue, the majority who say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits has increased to 76%, from 69% in March. The change in opinion of data centers since October 2025 is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Costs and benefits of data centers

Among registered voters

A majority of each partisan group say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits. In October 2025, there were virtually no differences between parties on the issue, with each mildly opposed to data centers. The percentage saying the costs outweigh the benefits has grown steadily among Republicans while fluctuating, at higher percentages, among independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Costs and benefits of data centers, by party identification

Among registered voters

A small majority of registered voters, 53%, say they would like to see Act 10, the law that limited collective bargaining for public employees in Wisconsin, repealed and collective bargaining restored, while 46% say the law should be kept as it is. There is a sharp partisan divide on this issue, with 86% of Democrats wanting a return to collective bargaining and 76% of Republicans want to keep the current law. Among independents, 65% want Act 10 repealed, while 31% say the law should remain unchanged.

School funding is a constant issue in Wisconsin. In this poll, 47% say their local public schools receive too little funding from the state, 33% say the schools get enough state funding, and 18% say schools get more than is needed. When last asked in January 2016, 57% said their schools got too little state aid, 30% said they got enough, and 7% said schools got more than needed.

Concern for property taxes remains high, with 58% saying it is more important to hold down property taxes and 41% saying school funding is more important. There has been no change in this since the March poll.

In May, the legislature defeated a bill proposed by Gov. Tony Evers and Republican legislative leaders to use the projected budget surplus to provide an increase in funding for special education, some property tax relief, and refunds directly to taxpayers, among other things. A Marquette Law School Poll survey in May, after the bill was defeated, found 80% of registered voters saying the bill should have been passed, 11% saying it should have been defeated, and 9% saying they didn’t know. In this July poll, 70% say the bill should have passed, with 14% saying it should have been defeated and 16% saying they don’t know.

As in the May poll, a second question mentioned objections from opponents of the bill who said the bill was fiscally irresponsible for spending a projected surplus now that might lead to a deficit in future budgets. Respondents were then asked if it was better to delay spending the projected surplus or better to provide the benefits of the bill immediately. In July, 27% say it is better to delay the spending, while 49% say the surplus should be spent now, with 23% saying they don’t know. In May, 21% favored delaying, 69% said it was better to provide the spending now, and 9% didn’t know.

National issues

Among Wisconsin voters, President Donald Trump’s job approval is 40%, with 58% disapproving. This is a decline from 42% in May. This is his lowest approval rating in either his first or second term in the Marquette Law School Poll, and his worst net approval. His approval ratings in his second term are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Trump job approval in second term

Among registered voters

Only 14% of registered voters say the United States has achieved its goals in the Iran war, while 85% say it has not. Large majorities of each partisan group say the U.S. goals have not been achieved, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Has U.S. achieved its goals in Iran war

Among registered voters

A somewhat higher percentage, though still an overall minority, say the Iran war has been worth the costs, boosted by a small majority of Republicans who say this, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Has Iran war been worth the cost

Among registered voters

Almost half of Wisconsin voters, 49%, say Iran now has more control over the Strait of Hormuz than it did before the war, while 28% say it has less control and 22% say there hasn’t been any change. Republicans are more likely to say Iran has less control, unlike independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Does Iran have more or less control of Strait of Hormuz

Among registered voters

Approval of governor, legislature, and Wisconsin Supreme Court

Approval of the job Evers is doing as governor rose to 51% from 47% in March. Evers’ approval since February 2025 is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Evers job approval

Among registered voters

Approval of how the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job declined to 36%, from 39% in March, with disapproval rising to 53% from 48%. The trend since February 2025 for approval of the legislature is in Table 29.

Table 29: Legislature job approval

Among registered voters

The Wisconsin Supreme Court has held a net positive approval rating in polling since 2023, with approval at 50% and disapproval at 38% in July, up from 46% approval in March. The full trend is shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Wisconsin Supreme Court job approval

Among registered voters

Favorability of political figures

Evers is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 44%. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is close behind with 43% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Sen. Ron Johnson’s rating is 36% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Vice President JD Vance and Trump have the lowest favorability ratings.

The full set of favorability ratings is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Favorability to state and national political figures

Among registered voters

Favorability to political groups

Both political parties have negative net-favorability ratings, though the Democratic party is seen more negatively than the Republican party. The Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement’s rating is identical to that of the Republican party, as shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Favorability to political organizations

Among registered voters

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted July 8-16, 2026, interviewing 838 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 695, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. To cover more subjects, some items were asked of random half-samples of 419 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-6.2 percentage points. The sample size for Republican primary voters is 399, with a margin of error of 6.5 percentage points. The sample size for Democratic primary voters is 430, with a margin of error of 6.1 percentage points.

Half-sample items:

• Satisfaction with public schools; reduce property taxes or increase school spending; enough state aid to schools; repeal Act 10; deporting immigrants in U.S. illegally; tariffs help or hurt the economy; tariffs helping farmers

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 621 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 217 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 782 respondents and with 56 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 33% independent. When independents who lean to a party are counted as partisans, the sample is 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent. In all polls conducted in 2025 and 2026, the combined samples were 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent. Counting independents who lean to a party as partisans, the 2025-26 samples were 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.