New Marquette Law School Poll finds majorities of registered voters still undecided in Wisconsin Supreme Court race, with Taylor leading Lazar among likely voters

Among registered voters

The survey was conducted March 11-18, 2026, interviewing 850 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 597 with a margin of error of +/-5.3 percentage points.

Among likely voters, there are fewer undecided in each partisan category, though half of independents remain undecided. Republicans and Democrats are more strongly aligned with each candidate among likely voters, as shown in Table 2, than among all registered voters (as shown above in Table 1).

Table 2: Supreme Court vote, by party identification

Among likely voters

Registered voters have become somewhat more familiar with both candidates since October, though more than 60% continue to say they haven’t heard enough to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each candidate. These results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Favorability of Supreme Court candidates

Among registered voters

Similarly, the number of those saying they have a clear idea of what each candidate stands for has increased since October, but a large percentage remain either unclear or haven’t heard enough, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Clear idea what Supreme Court candidates stand for

Among registered voters

There has been an increase in the percentage who say they have heard or read a lot about the Supreme Court race since February, though it still falls far short of attention to the state Supreme Court race in 2025. In March, 12% have heard a lot, up from 6% in February. In February 2025, however, 39% had heard a lot about that race.

More voters have heard “just a little” about this year’s Court race, 57%, slightly changed from 55% in February. Those who have heard nothing at all has declined from 38% in February to 31% in March.

A substantial majority (75%) of registered voters incorrectly believe that this election can tip the ideological balance on the Court. In the 2025 court election, the ideological balance could have tipped depending on the outcome, and 83% correctly believed that. This year, to use terms commonly found in the press and popular discussion, liberals hold a 4-3 majority, with a retiring conservative justice, so the majority will either remain unchanged or increase to five liberals. In 2025, a retiring liberal justice on the 4-3 court meant that the ideological balance on the Court could have flipped had the conservative candidate won.

There is a considerable Democratic advantage in engagement with the Court election across several measures. Among Democrats, 77% say they are certain to vote, while 59% of Republicans and 53% of independents are certain they will vote. In February, Democrats had a smaller turnout advantage, with 73% certain to vote, as were 67% of Republicans and 62% of independents. With two weeks to go before the election, citizens may yet become mobilized to vote, but, in this survey’s measure, Democrats have the advantage.

Similarly, Democrats express greater enthusiasm for voting, with 51% saying they are very enthusiastic about voting in the April election, compared to 32% of Republicans and 19% of independents who say that.

A final measure of engagement is those saying the outcome of the Supreme Court election is very important to them. Among Democrats, 65% say it is very important, while 46% of Republicans and 24% of independents say the same.

This Democratic advantage in engagement with the court election is larger than a small Democratic edge in attention to politics in general. Among Democrats, 65% say they follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, only a little more than for Republicans at 60%. Independents are much less likely to follow politics than are partisans, with just 38% of independents saying they follow politics most of the time.

The attacks on Iran and use of the military

A majority, 61%, say they disapprove of the U.S. military attacks on Iran, ordered by President Donald Trump, that began on Feb. 28, while 39% approve of the action. Table 5 shows opinion by party identification, with three-quarters of Republicans approving of the attacks, almost all Democrats disapproving, and more than 70% of independents disapproving as well.

Table 5: Approval of attacks on Iran, by party identification

Among registered voters

Approval of the attacks on Iran was asked as a split-sample wording test, with half being asked if they approve of “U.S. military attacks on Iran” and half asked about “President Trump ordering U.S. military attacks on Iran.” The differences in results for the two wordings are small and not statistically significant, as shown in Table 6. For this reason, the answers are combined in the analysis above.

Table 6: Approval of attacks on Iran, by Trump mentioned or not

Among registered voters

Some conservatives, such as Tucker Carlson, have criticized the attacks on Iran, raising questions of a potential split between Trump supporters. To examine how Republicans may differ on the Iran war, we distinguish Republicans who say they are favorable to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, making up 78% of all Republicans, from those Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA, comprising 22% of all Republicans. MAGA Republicans are far more approving of the attacks on Iran, while a substantial majority of non-MAGA Republicans disapprove of the attacks, as shown in Table 7. Dissent within the GOP comes from those not part of the MAGA base, not from those who regard themselves as part of the MAGA movement.

Table 7: Approval of attacks on Iran, by MAGA or non-MAGA Republicans

Among Republican registered voters

Prior to the attacks on Iran, in his second term, Trump has ordered the military to seize Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and ordered air strikes on Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria, in addition to discussing possible use of the military to take possession of Greenland. To measure public reaction to these uses of the military, aside from the Iran situation, respondents were asked whether they support or oppose Trump using the U.S. military to force changes in other countries. This question was asked earlier in the survey than the questions on Iran.

Thirty-five percent support using the military to force change in other countries, while 64% are opposed. Table 8 shows these responses by party identification, with Republicans divided by those who are favorable to MAGA and those not favorable to MAGA. The MAGA Republicans strongly support the use of force, while Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA are very similar to independents, with large majorities opposed to the use of force. Virtually all Democrats oppose using the military to force change in other countries.

Table 8: Use of military to force change, by party and MAGA

Among registered voters

Trump’s overall job approval in March is 42% with 56% disapproving, a 2-point decline in approval and 2-point increase in disapproval from February. This brings his net approval (approve minus disapprove) to -14 percentage points. The previous lowest net approval of Trump in his first or second term was -12 points in September 2018. Table 9 shows Trump’s approval in his second term.

Table 9: Trump job approval

Among registered voters

Trump retains his strong approval among Republicans, but his approval among independents has fallen to 26% and almost all Democrats disapprove, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Trump approval, by party identification

Among registered voters

Tariffs

On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In this survey, 59% favor this decision, while 40% oppose it. A majority of Republicans oppose the ruling, while majorities of independents and Democrats are in favor, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Court decision on tariffs, by party identification

Among registered voters

Trump has said he will reimpose tariffs under the authority of other laws. This is opposed by 60% and favored by 40%.

More Wisconsinites believe tariffs harm the U.S. economy rather than help it, an opinion that has been relatively stable during Trump’s second term, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Do tariffs help or hurt the economy

Among registered voters

A larger share of respondents say tariffs hurt Wisconsin farmers, with relatively few who believe tariffs help farmers. About a quarter say tariffs don’t make much of a difference. This trend is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Do tariffs help or hurt Wisconsin farmers

Among registered voters

Voters view Trump’s policies as more likely to increase inflation, 59%, than to decrease it, 28%, while 12% think his policies will have no effect on inflation. In February, 53% said Trump’s policies will increase inflation, and 35% thought his policies would decrease inflation. Table 14 shows opinion on inflation during Trump’s second term.

Table 14: Will Trump’s policies decrease or increase inflation

Among registered voters

Approval of U.S. and Wisconsin Supreme Courts

In this poll, Wisconsin voters have a negative view overall of the U.S. Supreme Court, with 37% approving of the Court and 55% disapproving. A majority of Republicans approve of the Court, while a majority of independents disapprove, as do a larger majority of Democrats, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by party identification

Among registered voters

The Wisconsin Supreme Court is viewed more favorably than the U.S. Supreme Court, with 46% approving, 37% disapproving, and 17% saying they don’t know. More people lack an opinion of the state Court than of the federal Court. And there is a smaller though still substantial partisan divide over the state court than over the federal court. Approval of the state court by party identification is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Wisconsin Supreme Court approval, by party identification

Among registered voters

Illegal immigration and ICE

Voters are asked two questions about deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally. One asks without qualification if the respondent favors deporting those in the country illegally. The other question adds the qualification “even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?” There has been a small decline in support for deportations without qualification from February to March, from 64% to 57%, while there has been only a one-percentage-point change in support for deportations with the qualifications added to the question, from 40% to 39%. The trends with both these question wordings are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Favor or oppose deportations, by question wording

Among registered voters

Favorable views of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have only slightly changed from 41% in February to 40% in March, while unfavorable views edged up from 52% in February to 55% in March.

Election integrity

Seventy-seven percent of Wisconsin registered voters are very or somewhat confident that votes in this November’s election will be accurately cast and counted, with 23% who are not too or not at all confident. This is little-changed from prior to the 2022 midterm election, when 77% were confident and 20% were not confident in the election.

Substantial majorities of Republicans, independents, and Democrats are confident in the accuracy of this fall’s election, though Republicans are least confident. This is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Confidence in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Regardless of general confidence in the accuracy of the upcoming election, 43% say election officials sometimes or often submit false vote counts, while 57% say this never or hardly ever happens.

A substantial majority of Republicans think election officials submit false vote counts sometimes or often, while a small majority of independents and a large majority of Democrats say this happens never or hardly ever. This is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: How often election officials report false vote count, by party identification

Among registered voters

On voting by non-citizens or non-Wisconsin residents, 47% say this happens sometimes or often, while 53% say it happens never or hardly ever. Republicans are much more likely to say this happens sometimes or often, while independents are evenly divided. A large majority of Democrats say this never or hardly ever occurs, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: How often do non-citizens/non-residents vote, by party identification

Among registered voters

Despite the level of distrust of election officials and suspicion of voting by non-citizens or non-residents, a large majority of respondents, 79%, say they trust Wisconsin state and local officials more than the federal government to ensure fair and accurate elections, while 20% trust the federal government more.

As with confidence in the accuracy of the fall election, a majority of Republicans, 61%, have greater trust in state and local officials, as do 80% of independents and 99% of Democrats, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Trust state or federal officials more to ensure accurate & fair election, by party identification

Among registered voters

State issues

Data Centers

Data centers continue to be seen as creating more costs than benefits. This has hardly changed since February, when a large shift against data centers was seen, compared to October 2025, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Benefits vs costs of data centers

Among registered voters

Majorities of each partisan category say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits, but there has been some change in partisan positions since February. Republicans have become slightly more opposed than they were previously, while independents and Democrats are slightly less opposed than previously. This contrasts with October when there were no partisan differences, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Benefits and costs of data centers, by party identification

Among registered voters

Sixty-nine percent of those polled in Wisconsin say artificial intelligence (AI) is being developed too quickly, while 29% say it is moving at the right pace and 2% say it is progressing too slowly. In February, 73% said AI was moving too quickly. Of those who say AI is moving too quickly, 79% say the costs of data centers outweigh the benefits. Those who say AI is moving at about the right pace are evenly divided on data centers, with 50% saying the benefits outweigh the costs of data centers and 49% say the costs outweigh the benefits.

K-12 school funding

The poll included a number of questions concerning K-12 school funding.

Asked which is more important, a majority of registered voters, 58%, say they are more concerned about property taxes, while 41% are more concerned about funding for K-12 public schools. In February, 60% were more concerned about property taxes.

Registered voters are evenly divided over Gov. Tony Evers’ use of his partial veto in 2024 to require increases in school spending limits for the next 400 years. As between two answers provided: Forty-eight percent say this was necessary to support public schools, while 52% say his veto will require tax increases each year. In February, 49% said the veto was necessary and 50% said it will require tax increases.

Forty-seven percent say they would prefer a one-time payment directly to taxpayers to offset property taxes, while 52% say they would prefer an increase in ongoing state aid to schools to reduce the need for property tax increases.

Forty-eight percent say they would vote for a referendum to increase taxes for schools in their community, while 51% say they would vote against such a referendum. In February, 43% said they would vote for a referendum and 57% would vote against it.

While the public is divided on funding for schools, a majority, 59%, are very or somewhat satisfied with the job their local public schools are doing, while 40% are somewhat or very dissatisfied.

A constitutional amendment to ban the use of partial vetoes to create or increase taxes or fees is set for the November ballot. This survey asked a broader question:

Wisconsin governors have long had the power to cast a partial veto of budget legislation. This allows them to strike out individual words or sentences, in some cases significantly changing the effect of the legislation. Do you think this is an appropriate power for governors to have, or does it give too much power to governors to change the intent of the legislature?

To this question, 39% say the partial veto is an appropriate power, while 61% say it gives too much power to governors.

Issue concerns

Seventy-five percent of respondents say they are very concerned about inflation and the cost of living. Health insurance drew the second-highest response, with 63% saying they are very concerned about it. Sixty percent said they were very concerned about jobs and the economy.

Between 51% and 57% of people said they were very concerned about affordability of housing, public schools, and illegal immigration. Somewhat less concern is expressed for property taxes, gun violence, and abortion policy, each with between 47% and 43% very concerned. The issue of least concern is “crime in your community,” with 28% very concerned. The full set of responses is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Issue concerns

Among registered voters

There are substantial partisan differences in issue concerns. Republicans are much more concerned with immigration and border security than are Democrats, with independents the least concerned. Property taxes are also of greater concern to Republicans, as is, to a lesser degree, crime in the community. Democrats express more concern with all the other issues than do Republicans, and are much more concerned with gun violence, inflation, affordability of housing, and health insurance than are Republicans. The comparisons by party are shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Issue concerns by party identification

Among registered voters

Most important issue

In addition to level of concern about issues, respondents were asked which one issue is most important to them. Inflation tops this list at 35%. The second most important issue is illegal immigration and border security, picked by 14%, followed by health insurance at 11%. The full list is shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Most important issue

Among registered voters

Gubernatorial candidates

Registered voters have generally not heard much about the governor’s race, with 8% hearing a lot, 56% hearing a little, and 35% hearing nothing at all. This is unchanged from February when 8% had heard a lot and 35% nothing at all.

Most of the gubernatorial candidates are unfamiliar to most voters. Only former Lt. Gov. and 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and Rep. Tom Tiffany have a name ID of 50% or above. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Rep. Francesca Hong, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley each have name ID above 20%, while all other candidates are below 20%.

The name ID and favorability of all candidates among registered voters are shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Favorability of gubernatorial candidates

Among registered voters

More than half of registered voters say they haven’t decided on a candidate in either the Republican or Democratic gubernatorial primary. For the Republicans, 54% haven’t decided and for the Democratic primary, 65% haven’t picked a candidate.

In the Republican primary, 40% support Tiffany and 6% chose Andy Manske.

On the Democratic side, Hong is the choice of 14% and Barnes is supported by 11%, with all others below 5%, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Democratic primary vote choice

Among Democratic primary voters

Attorney General candidates

Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, has a name ID of 43%, with 25% rating him favorably and 18% rating him unfavorably.

Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney, a Republican, has a name ID of 23%, with 12% favorable and 11% unfavorable.

Approval of governor, legislature, and Wisconsin Supreme Court

Approval of the job Evers is doing as governor slipped to 47% from 49% in February. Evers’ approval since February 2025 is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Evers job approval

Among registered voters

Approval of how the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job ticked down to 39% from 41% in February, with disapproval rising to 48% from 44%. The trend since February 2025 for approval of the legislature is in Table 30.

Table 30: Legislature job approval

Among registered voters

The Wisconsin Supreme Court has held a net positive approval rating in polling since 2023, with approval at 46% and disapproval at 37% in March. That is down from 49% approval in February. The full trend is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Wisconsin Supreme Court job approval

Among registered voters

Favorability of political figures

Evers is seen favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 46%, while Sen. Tammy Baldwin follows with 43% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Sen. Ron Johnson’s favorable rating is 36% and unfavorable is 44%.

The full set of favorability ratings is shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Favorability to state and national political figures

Among registered voters

Favorability to political groups

Both political parties have negative net-favorability ratings, though the Democratic party is seen more negatively than the Republican party. The MAGA movement’s rating is more negative than that of the Republican party, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Favorability to political organizations

Among registered voters

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted March 11-18, 2026, interviewing 850 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 597 with a margin of error of +/-5.3 percentage points. To cover more subjects, a number of items where asked of random half-samples of 423 and 427 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. The sample size for Republican primary voters is 396, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. The sample size for Democratic primary voters is 393, with a margin of error of +/-6.7 percentage points.

Half-sample items:

• Concern about issues
• Satisfaction with public schools, reduce property taxes or increase school spending, vote for or against school referendum, property tax refund or increase state aid to schools, 400-year partial veto, deporting immigrants in U.S. illegally, tariffs help or hurt the economy, tariffs helping farmers, Trump policy decreasing inflation

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 619 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 231 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The survey was conducted online with 771 respondents and with 79 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent. When independents who lean to a party are counted as partisans, the sample is 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 12% independent. In all polls conducted in 2025 and 2026, the combined samples were 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent. Counting independents who lean to a party as partisans, the 2024 samples were 46% Republican, 42% Democratic, and 13% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.